Butler vs Michigan St

I respect Tom Izzo as much as the next guy and I think the job he’s done with this Spartans team is incredible, but there’s come a point were coaching alone won’t get the job done.  Very, very few people had Michigan State anywhere near the Final Four and frankly it was for good reason.  They went 5-4 to close out the season after starting 19-3 and lost to a pedestrian Minnesota team in the first round of the Big-10 tournament.  They struggled as a team from the free throw line all season, making only 68% of their attempts and a decent 34% from three. Furthermore, if not for a game winning shot by little known Korie Lucious in round 2 against Maryland, the Spartans would be dead.  Alas, they drew without a doubt the easiest draw the rest of the way in Northern Iowa and Tennessee and that has predictably raised their pedigree to the point that they opened this game as favorites.

Nobody knows a thing about the Butler Bulldogs but this team went undefeated in conference play and has won an incredible 23 games in a row, last losing on December 22nd, 2009.  That is an insane run that has carried into the tournament, as the Bulldogs knocked off #1 Syracuse and #2 Kansas State to punch their ticket into the Final Four.   Much is going to be made about how this is a “home” game for Butler but you can rest assured the coaching staff is going to play the “underdog” card to motivate his players. Butler has not only won 23 straight but finished 6th in the NCAA’s in defensive efficiency while allowing opponents to shoot under 46% from inside the arc.  That’s a key statistic because Michigan State is going to have real trouble scoring the ball without Kalin Lucas and serious injuries to Chris Allen and Delvon Roe.

The bottom line is that Butler is simply the better team that has knocked off two legitimate National Title contenders.  Michigan State survived by the skin of their teeth early and took advantage of choke jobs from Ohio State and Kansas to make it here.  Think of the Spartans like a stock whose bubble is about to bust in a big, big way.  It wouldn’t shock me to see Butler boat-race this team and punch its ticket to the Championship game.

The play: Butler –1

Also like Duke -2

...have slight leans to the under in both games

 Maryland Terrapins +1 (10 Units)

The Michigan State Spartans are not a team I would ever put money on in this tournament because they remind me of teams like Villanova and Vanderbilt who played well earlier this season but who have had horrendous second halves of the season and who played some terrible basketball heading into the NCAA Tournament. We all saw what happened to Villanova yesterday and I see the same happening to the Spartans here because all is not right in the land of Sparty. First of all something is going on between some of the players and Tom Izzo as Chris Allen was kicked off the team and suspended but somehow he was back for the opening round game. I guess that didn't last long. Second of all one of the best rebounders on the Spartans Devon Roe is playing hurt and needs surgery in the off-season so he is not 100% and that is no doubt going to be a problem against bigger and better opponents like Maryland. The Spartans went down hard to Minnesota in the first round of their conference tournament and I don't trust them to beat better teams at this point. I don't even think they deserved to beat New Mexico State. The Spartans come into this game averaging only 64.2 points per game their last five games and they are shooting only 41.9% from the field in those games. That is definitely not Sweet 16 material in my eyes. Maryland is not the best defensive team but they don't try to be and they don't mind playing at a crazy pace and allowing other teams to score at their pace. The problem with the Terps has been their perimeter defense because their last five opponents have made 41.3% of their three point shots the last five games but Michigan State is not a three point shooting team and have made only 4.2 three point shots per game their last five games. Seeing how the Spartans cannot take advantage of Maryland's weakness on the perimeter defensively they will need to get some of those points back from the free throw line but the problem there is that they shoot only 67.9% from the free throw line the last five games. What the Spartans do well is use their size and they almost always outrebound their opponents with 37.0 rebounds per game their last five games but that edge is gone against Maryland because the Terps are just as good around the basket and they can match the Spartans rebound for rebound on both ends of the court. The guard play for Michigan State has been average at best the last five games as they average only 12.8 assists per game in those games and turn the ball over 14.6 times per game (well above NCAA average). Maryland has forced 13.0 turnovers per game their last five games with 7.4 steals per game, it's very tough to get offensive rhythm and flow against this defense the Terps should have no problems avoiding a barrage of shots from the perimeter instead banking on sending Michigan State to the free throw line where they have already shown they cannot consistently make free throws. I think Michigan State meets their match here.

The Maryland Terrapins I have to admit looked damn good against a very good and very dangerous Houston team that was very intent of being one of the double digit seeds that makes it to the weekend. Instead they ran into a Maryland team that looks as balanced as any other team in this tournament right now and with Kansas out of the picture in the Midwest bracket, you have to think this Terrapins team sees the light to the FINAL FOUR and it all begins with a win over a Big Ten Conference opponent with another possible game against a Big Ten Conference opponent with a trip to Indianapolis on the line. It appears after that first round game that the Terps took losing in the first round of their conference tournament quite seriously because they scored 89 points in their opening game in this tournament, they had a whopping 47 rebounds in that game, they shot the ball well from the field and the free throw line but their three point shooting could use some work and it's scary to think that they can shoot better than they did in that game. The Terrapins come into this game averaging a whopping 82.0 points per game their last five games and the way Michigan State is playing and shooting, they can't keep up with that as Maryland is making 44.1% of their shots in those games. The Spartans do have tremendous defense and it's hard to score on them but their interior defense is nothing special, the Terps have been to the free throw line 22.0 times per game their last five games and they have made 81.8% of their free throws in those games which was a big part of the reason why they beat Houston and covered the spread by a few points. I talked about not many teams being able to bang inside with the Spartans but believe me Maryland is tough inside as they have brought down 36.0 rebounds per game their last five games with 13.0 offensive rebounds per game and that's going to be huge against such a tough Spartans team. What really has me sold on Maryland is how much better their guard play has been as they average a whopping 15.8 assissts per game their last five games while turning the ball over only 10.6 times per game as a team. That's huge here because Michigan State has 8.8 steals per game their last five games, they love to pressure opposing teams and force turnovers but Maryland is used to it, they have tremendous guard play the last couple of weeks and this kind of defense should not affect them at all in this game. Right now there is no stopping the Terps offensively and they just have this energy about them that not many other teams in this tournament have. The Spartans have their defense but that's about it and it won't be enough to beat such an energetic Maryland team.

This one is simple guys. If you see a very low scoring game with a slow pace, take Michigan State. If you see a high scoring game with a high energy, pound away on Maryland because the way the Spartans are shooting and the way they are playing, they can't handle Maryland at full speed. This is definitely not the first time these two basketball programs meet as they last met in 2008 in the pre-season games and Maryland managed to beat the Spartans by 18 points. They also managed to beat them by 2 points in 2006 and they lost to them by 2 points in 2003 so two of the three games have been close. I have to give the overall defense edge to the Spartans and they do have a deep bench but their rebounding advantage that they have on so many teams is pretty much cancelled out because of how good Maryland is on the boards and the Terps have shown in the past that they can handle heavy defensive pressure. Michigan State is only 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games overall and they are only 5-16 ATS in their last 21 games versus a team with a straight up winning record on the season. The Spartans are only 1-4 ATS in their last five neutral site games, they are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games versus a team with a winning percentage above .600% on the season and they are 0-4 ATS in their last four games versus ACC Conference opponents. Maryland on the other hand is 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games versus Big Ten Conference opponents and they are 4-1 ATS in their last five games versus a team with a straight up winning record. The loss in their conference tournament has bothered this team and they have played too well down the stretch to not stick around against a trouble team like Michigan State. I love the Terrapins to run away with this game in the second half. The Terps were one of only a few ACC teams that beat Big Ten teams in the ACC-Big Ten Challenge as they went to Indiana and won by 12. This is a good team.

Trend of the Game: Maryland is 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games versus Big Ten Conference opponents.

Take Maryland -1

Also like Xavier +1 / Duke over 146 / Tex A&M -2